Hunt
for Osama bin Laden without specific intelligence
Hunt for Osama bin Laden continues. The US has now posted a $25 million
the bounty (“in the hope of Afghans creeping through caves”
– Rumsfeld),
DEBKAfile’s military sources believe that
"the search is closing into a narrowing area south of Kandahar"
is an overstatement. The search goes on all over the country, without
specific intelligence leaning to any one area.
Taliban-al Qaeda Break out of Konduz and Head
for Road to Kabul
Negotiations for the evacuation of Taliban-al-Qaeda forces from their
last Afghan strongholds of Konduz and Kandahar are shuffling forward
sluggishly
Tuesday morning, November 20, the United States paused in its massive
bombardment to give the Konduz negotiators a chance to wind up three
days of palaver in an abandoned airstrip in a no-man’s zone within
range of both battling sides.
Two more sessions were scheduled for Tuesday, November 20, for the
purpose of arranging a peaceful withdrawal of the defending force
to the 25,000 ft. high Hindu Kush mountains, when the Konduz defenders
broke the stalemate
al Qaeda troops withdrew as far as encircled Khanabad and are threatening
Taleqon on the road to Kabul. This might even be the opening shot
in a Taliban counter-offensive against the capital.
Konduz Holdout
DEBKAfile’s military sources list four sticking
points as holding up a conclusion of the battle of Konduz:
1. Mutual suspicion between al Qaeda and Northern Alliance; neither
trusts the other to make good on any deal and not make it a trap for
the other side
2. Rebel forces pin them down on the west and east of the embattled
city, but the northern and southern exits remain open
Heading south must bring them on a collision course with the Northern
Alliance forces and, further down the road, with the American and
Russian special forces gathering in the Kabul area.
The harsh terrain makes it impossible to move fast with heavy weapons.
They would have to leave during night into the mountains without their
tanks, artillery, mortars, and heavy machine guns, carrying nothing
but sidearms. Judging by their breakout Tuesday, their commanders
did not view their situation as desperate enough to force them into
precipitate flight without their armory.
3 .DEBKAfile estimates that a total of 20,000
Taliban and 3,000 al Qaeda fighters are under assault in Konduz. The
Americans are reported disinclined to allow a force on this scale
get away to fight another day.
4. The Northern Alliance is demanding high-ranking Taliban hostages
left behind when the main force leaves, as surety against Taliban
traps for the incoming rebel troops.
The four journalists ambushed and killed
in the Taliban territory
The four journalists, killed Monday November 19, were misled into
believing they were traversing Northern Alliance-controlled routes.
They were ambushed between Jalalabad and Kabul, where is Taliban territory.
The Taliban and al Qaida retain full control of their southern stronghold
of Kandahar and its environs. Some 15,000 Taliban and 2.500 al Qaeda
fighters remain there with an outer ring of 3-4 thousand soldiers
commanding a 15 sq km radius around the town.
Their hold on territory 90 kms east of Kabul, including the routes
from Jalalabad to the capital is far from being confined to “pockets
of resistance” in the midst of rebel-held lands and amounts to
full control.
Kandahar Linked to Pakistan
Negotiations for handing over of Kandahar continue between the Taliban
commanders and Pashtun tribal leaders.
The Taliban forces are concentrated in Jalalabad. A leading voice
on the Pashtun side is the extremist Mullah Sufi Muhammad, who is
based in Kunhar, Pakistan, and commands the Pakistani 15,000 tribesmen
and are encamped in Jalalabad and around Kandahar.
Mullah crossed into Jalalabad several times. He is backed by the Pakistani
Inter-Services Intelligence agency. Kandahar’s military situation
is therefore complicated by the impact of the political state of play
between the Pakistan’s ISI and the military factions that still
loyal to Pevrez Musharref.
DEBKAfile’s military sources believe that the Kandahar deal
awaits a decision in Konduz and will most probably follow the same
lines. However a flare-up of fighting in the northern town will also
cue an upsurge in the violence in and around Kandahar
Afghan Under Russian Military Hands
DEBKAfile’s military sources report that
the most professional and efficient military force in the Afghan capital
at the moment is the Russian special forces, who began arriving at
last week.
By Tuesday morning, November 20, their number had expanded to 1200
Russian commandoes in Kabul, one battalion each of Spetsnaz troops
attached to the Russian General Command and the 201st Mechanized Rifle.
Two more battalions are due by the end of the week, one for Kabul,
and one for Bagram Air base, doubling Russian strength in the Afghan
capital to 1200. They will serve alongside elements of US Special
Forces units and 75 British commandoes.
By the end of this week, Russian strength in and around Kabul will
rise to 6,400 soldiers, roughly the same number as the British commandos,
whose dispatch to Afghanistan has been called off at the insistence
of Northern Alliance chiefs
Given the unruly situation in most of Afghanistan, the prospects are
extremely dim of a broad-based multiethnic government emerging in
Kabul from the UN-sponsored conference of tribal and factional leaders
taking place in Berlin this coming weekend.
>
related article - > High-Powered
Russian Team Heads to Kabul
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DEBKAfile is a multilingual
electronic Israeli
newsletter that goes behind current events. DEBKA
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mate and pinpointed US preparations for a possible Iraqi October Flare-up
well in advance. DEBKA
were on top of the Camp David Middle East Peace Summit’s failure
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